BEEF producers are showing resilience and strategic patience in the face of market and seasonal challenges, according to the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).
Key points are:
- The majority of producers have maintained herd size intentions from the previous survey in April 2025;
- Autumn calving slightly exceeded expectations, with 2.43 million calves delivered;
- Cattle sales fell short of forecasts, with producers citing weight and price factors, and;
- The survey suggests producers are holding cattle in anticipation of stronger prices.
The Pulse survey, conducted between July 1 and 17, 2025, provides a mid-year update to the full survey conducted in April and captures producer sentiment and actual outcomes across herd management, calving, and cattle sales.
The survey received responses from 1295 grass-fed beef producers nationwide and found that 84 per cent of producers indicated their intentions have remained the same since April 2025. Only 16 per cent reported a change from the last survey, with six per cent now planning to reduce their herd, seven per cent opting to maintain herd size, and three per cent intending to increase.
MLA’s Market Information Analyst, Emily Tan, said the level of consistency in herd planning reflected a cautious but deliberate approach from producers.
“Producers are watching the market closely and making decisions that position them well given the market conditions,” Ms Tan said.
Autumn calving outcomes slightly exceeded expectations, with producers reporting 2.43 million calves delivered. This was up from the April forecast of 2.39 million calves.
While 38 per cent of producers delivered fewer calves than expected, 32 per cent delivered more, and 29 per cent met their forecast.
However, cattle sales in the first half of 2025 fell short of expectations. Actual sales totalled 4.03 million head, down from the April forecast of 4.82 million. Nearly half of producers (46 per cent) sold fewer cattle than planned.
“Many producers are holding cattle back, either because they didn’t meet weight targets or because they’re anticipating stronger prices later in the year,” Ms Tan said.
“This aligns with broader industry sentiment that suggests producers are waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market.”
Among those who sold fewer cattle than expected, 42 per cent cited weight issues and 21 per cent pointed to price forecasts as key reasons.
Conversely, producers who sold more than expected were driven by stronger-than-anticipated prices (33 per cent), the need for cash flow (29 per cent), and efforts to reduce feeding costs (25 per cent).
“These results show producers are being tactical,” Ms Tan said.
“They’re balancing short-term pressures with long-term opportunities, and that’s a sign of confidence in the future.”
The Beef Producer Intentions Survey was designed by MLA to support the industry with reliable data, and is used by MLA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It is one of the inputs into the MLA beef industry forecasting models.
